International markets and bonds have provided the most stability this quarter, with the MSCI International Index gaining 6.35% and bond prices rising due to falling interest rates. Portfolios that are diversified across asset classes and geographies have held up the best.

A recent study reviewed the 2024 S&P 500 return estimates from 20 prominent banks and asset managers, made at the end of 2023. The closest estimate was off by 12% and the median prediction missed by 23% versus the actual return. Be cautious with forecasts for 2025.

Crime related to fraudulent new accounts is responsible for 80% of all identity fraud reports. If you haven’t already, consider freezing your credit at TransUnion, Experian, and Equifax to help prevent unauthorized credit cards and loans being opened in your name.

A recent Vanguard study highlighted the difficulty in market timing: If an investor invested $100,000 from 1996 to 2024 into a balanced 60/40 portfolio and left it alone, it would be worth $865,000. If they tried to time the market and missed out on just the best 5 days, they would be left with $659,000. Similarly, they would have $540,000 if they missed just the best 10 days.

In the past four years, the S&P 500 has experienced two bear markets resulting in declines of more than -33% in 2020 and -24% in 2022. Despite these declines, the S&P 500 has gained more than 58% over this period. Focusing on the bigger picture and tuning out the short-term noise is helpful in maintaining your long-term strategy.

In 2023, Elser Financial clients gifted more than $8.6 million tax efficiently to charities through donor-advised funds and qualified charitable donations. Thank you for giving back to your communities!